Ethereum Price Forecast: Retail distributions outweigh whale and ETF buying

Ethereum price today: $2,480

• Ethereum retail investors distributed a combined 307K ETH last week.
• Whales added 82K ETH while inflows into spot ETH ETFs dropped to $218.4 million.
• ETH saw another rejection at the $2,544 resistance.

Ethereum (ETH) continues to consolidate near $2,500 on Monday as distribution from retail wallets outweighed whale optimism.

Retail investors or wallets holding 1K-10K ETH offloaded 214K ETH last week, extending their distribution pattern to a second consecutive week, according to CryptoQuant data. Notably, investors in this cohort began selling after ETH took a breather near $2,500, just above their average on-chain cost basis of $2,265. The move reflects a cautious approach toward the recent recovery as retail investors are distributing after breaking even or booking modest profits.

Similarly, investors in the 100-1K ETH bracket depleted their holdings by 93K ETH, continuing a distribution sentiment that has been prevalent since the beginning of the year. That represents a combined 307K ETH distribution from retail wallets.

Meanwhile, whales or wallets holding 10K-100K ETH slowed their buying pace from the previous week, with inflows of 82K ETH last week.

Broadly, ETH Exchange Reserves increased earlier in the week before dropping later as bulls pushed back to defend the $2,400 level.

In addition, inflows into US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) eased to $218.4 million last week from $824 million the prior week, according to SoSoValue data.

The sustained retail distributions and a slowdown in whale and ETF buying offer insight into why ETH has been consolidating between $2,400 and $2,500 over the past week.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH fails to clear $2,544 resistance again

Ethereum recorded $39.5 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $22.4 million in short liquidations.

On the daily chart, ETH maintains a constructive bullish bias as price holds above the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The cluster of EMAs between roughly $2,095 and $2,385 now underpins the advance, suggesting dips are being bought rather than sold.

Momentum remains firm, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 64 and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) near 65, both hinting at sustained upside pressure without yet signaling an extreme overbought condition.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the nearby horizontal level around $2,431, reinforced by the 20-period EMA at $2,385. Below that, deeper demand is seen around the 50-period EMA at $2,192 and the 200-period EMA near $2,183. Ahead of that is the horizontal shelf at $2,172, while more distant floors sit at $1,961 and $1,809.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at $2,544, followed by the $2,626 hurdle and then the higher barrier near $2,786. A daily close above these caps would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)