Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC defends support as XAU rebounds ahead of Fed decision

• Bitcoin stabilizes above $75,000 after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
• Gold edges higher above $4,300, suggesting investors are increasing exposure amid monetary policy uncertainty.
• The US Fed is largely expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, a decision that could weigh on risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) holds above support tested at $75,000 on Wednesday as bulls push to regain momentum following a sharp drop from $78,250 the previous day. The Crypto King reflects widespread doldrums in the cryptocurrency market after the United States (US) Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.

Gold (XAU/USD), meanwhile, remains stable as it ticks up above $4,300. Still, momentum appears to be lagging ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Markets brace for Fed rate hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise interest rates later on Wednesday, adopting a hawkish stance against the backdrop of sticky inflation that hovers above the central bank’s 2% target.
Market participants are pricing in 92.7% odds that the Fed will hike interest rates to between 3.75% and 4.00%, potentially weighing on risk assets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to keep Crude Oil prices elevated, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $102, up roughly 19% from September 1.

Raising rates could put additional strain on the world’s largest economy, increasing borrowing costs for both consumers and borrowers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference would provide investors with insight into the regulator’s monetary policy, with analysts seemingly pricing in a higher probability of another rate hike in October.

“You could find enough reasons to stay on hold, but you are doing it in a market that is anticipating more and more aggressive action,” Ed Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, told reporters in a recent webinar.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin faces headwinds

Bitcoin hovers above $75,000 while upside remains capped below the short-term hurdle at $76,000. This follows a sharp correction from Monday highs of $79,600. Despite the correction, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization maintains a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $71,400 and $73,600.

The recent break and sustained trade above the prior downward resistance trendline, whose break point sits near $65,462, further reinforces a medium-term supportive structure even as momentum cools, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining in negative territory, suggesting a consolidative rather than impulsive advance.

Initial support aligns with the 50-day EMA near $73,577, followed by the 200-day EMA at about $73,144 and the broken descending trendline region around $65,462, which now acts as a deeper structural floor if a larger correction unfolds. With no clearly defined resistance levels on the daily chart, upside scope is effectively open, and a daily close well above $76,000 would likely encourage another attempt higher. On the other hand, a break back below the EMA cluster would hint at a loss of bullish control.

Gold technical analysis: XAU attempts recovery

Gold is gaining ground above $4,300, as the 200-day EMA at $4,321 provides initial trend support, but remains capped by a nearby cluster of shorter EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $4,346 and the 100-day EMA at $4,364 sit overhead as immediate resistance, suggesting a consolidative tone after the recent bounce.

Momentum is mixed, with the RSI near a neutral 48 and the MACD in negative territory, suggesting upside attempts could remain vulnerable while price trades below this short-term EMA band.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA at $4,346, followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,364. A sustained break above this zone would open the way toward the next technical barrier near the descending resistance trendline break price at $4,513. On the downside, the 200-day EMA at $4,321 forms the first meaningful support, and a daily close below this level would likely reinforce a softer bias and expose a deeper pullback toward the lower recent range. Holding above it keeps XAU in a broader consolidation phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)