Pepe Price Forecast: Whale activity, retail speculation fuel fresh PEPE rally

• Pepe edges higher on Friday, following two consecutive days of double-digit gains.
• On-chain data suggests a surge in whale demand amid a shift in supply from exchanges to top holders' wallets.
• Retail speculation scales higher, with Open Interest rising to a three-month high of $250 million.

Pepe (PEPE) maintains a steady upward bias on Friday, following two consecutive days of 11% gains. Recovery in PEPE aligns with renewed demand among large-wallet holders, commonly referred to as whales, triggering a transfer of supply from exchanges to top addresses. Speculative demand for the meme coin is also increasing, with PEPE futures Open Interest rising to a three-month high of $250 million, indicating a positional buildup.

Is Pepe gaining whale attention?

Pepe is up 25% so far this week, turning heads in both the retail and large-holder spaces. Santiment data shows that seven large transactions, each over $1 million in volume, occurred on Thursday, the highest number since March 16, indicating renewed interest among whales. 

In addition, the supply held on exchanges has fallen to 81.30 trillion PEPE from 82.75 trillion PEPE on August 12, suggesting reduced supply available for sale. At the same time, the top non-exchange addresses now hold 84.04 trillion PEPE, up from 80.50 trillion PEPE on August 12, reaffirming fresh demand among large-wallet investors. Typically, a surge in whale demand near swing lows signals a trend reversal, which, in PEPE's case, hints at upside.

On the retail side, CoinGlass data shows that PEPE futures Open Interest has hit a three-month high of $250 million, up from $209 million the previous day, suggesting an increase in the notional value of existing contracts or a positional buildup. The OI-weighted funding rate of 0.0095% indicates that traders are paying a premium to hold long positions, reaffirming the buy-side bias. In the case of meme coins, a surge in speculation fuels a sustained rally, hinting at further gains in PEPE.

Technical outlook: How high will the PEPE rally go?

Pepe holds a near-term bullish bias on Friday as it sustains its 22% gains over the last two days, surpassing both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $0.00000283 and $0.00000300, respectively. The frog-themed meme coin has also surpassed the June 15 high at $0.00000314, opening the path toward the 200-day EMA at $0.00000363.

The long-term overhead EMA reflects a bearish bias, and a confirmed breakout above $0.00000363 could extend the rally toward the May 10 high at $0.00000459.

Momentum on the daily chart shows renewed upside pressure as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crosses above its signal line and extends higher into positive territory. At the same time, a fresh bullish histogram emerges above the zero line, hinting at increasing buying pressure.

On the downside, a pullback below the 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $0.00000300 and $0.00000283, respectively, could serve as immediate support, guarding against a deeper pullback toward the July 8 low at $0.00000255.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)