Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH rally calms after reclaiming $2,300 on-chain cost basis

Ethereum price today: $2,450

• Ethereum exchange inflows have increased after its price rose above investors' average on-chain cost basis at $2,306.
• Small-scale retailers dominated recent profit-taking, while whales continued accumulating.
• ETH's aggressive golden cross signal has confirmed a bullish outlook.

After a +30% gain last week, Ethereum (ETH) broke above its realized price, or average on-chain cost basis, at $2,306. That move also pushed it above the realized price of different wallet cohorts.

Historically, profit-taking often increases when prices break above investors' average on-chain cost basis for the first time after an extended bearish period. Investors who have been underwater may exit the market after breaking even and seeing modest profits.

Accordingly, ETH Exchange Netflows have been positive over the past two days, with its 7-day moving average rising into inflows territory. A positive Exchange Netflow shows more coins are flowing into exchanges than leaving, a signal that historically correlates with increased selling pressure.

Most recent selling is coming from retail wallets with a balance of 100-1K ETH. The cohort depleted their holdings by 207K ETH last week.

In contrast, the collective balance of wallets with 1K-10K ETH remained largely unchanged at 13.623M ETH, while whales or wallets holding 10K-100K ETH increased their balance by 182K ETH.

Despite retail wallets dominating the selling, the move could turn into a lasting rally if bulls defend the realized price, as in similar past moves.

US sentiment on the brink of turning positive

Meanwhile, US-based investors' sentiment has continued to improve over the past week. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures investor sentiment in the region, is on the verge of flipping positive after months in negative territory.

In addition, US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued their positive move from last week, recording $115.5 million in net inflows on Monday, per SoSoValue data. The move marks six consecutive days of net inflows into the products.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH golden cross signal confirms bullish outlook

Ethereum saw $103.2 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $69 million in short liquidations, according to Coinglass data.

ETH is showing strong short- and medium-term buying momentum following the aggressive golden cross signal, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing above the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA above the 100-day EMA.

​The stacked EMA configuration suggests a reinforced uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the high-70s and the Stochastic in the high 80s point to strong but overbought momentum that could make the advance vulnerable to consolidation rather than a clean continuation.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the recent horizontal level around $2,431, with deeper demand anticipated near the 20-day EMA at $2,162 and the 200-day EMA at $2,144. Additional structural levels around $2,172 and $1,961 provide support on a steeper decline.

On the topside, ETH faces the next resistance zone at $2,678, ahead of a higher barrier at $2,865, where overbought momentum readings suggest that buyers may need a pause or corrective pullback off support to muster the strength for a sustained break higher.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)