Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure despite recent rebound — Glassnode

• Bitcoin trades roughly 15% below the True Market Mean at $77.2K, indicating that the market remains in a bearish regime.
• Short-term holders remain underwater, with loss realization continuing to outweigh profit-taking despite BTC's slight rebound.
• Glassnode highlighted improving spot liquidity and easing derivatives stress as early signs that a market bottom could be forming.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains well below key onchain metrics, with realized losses continuing to dominate capital flows despite a partial price recovery.

Bitcoin recovery yet to shift market from bearish territory

The top crypto rebounded from lows near $60,000 to the $65,000 range after the US-Iran peace deal reversed much of the war premium that had weighed on risk assets.

However, Glassnode suggests that the market is still firmly in bear territory, as early signs of improving liquidity and patient accumulation suggest a potential floor may be forming.

Bitcoin is currently trading at a 15% discount to the True Market Mean of $77,200. Glassnode stated that the persistent discount confirms the market remains in a bearish regime despite the recent rebound.

"Despite the recent bounce, the on-chain regime has remained firmly on the bear side, and any abrupt reclaim of the True Market Mean would be the trigger for revising the broader outlook from bear toward a potential pre-bull transition," the report noted.

Short-term holders remain under pressure

Glassnode highlighted that the Short-Term Holder MVRV has improved from 0.81 to 0.90 but remains below the critical 1.0 breakeven level. The movement suggests that about 10% of investors who acquired Bitcoin in the past 155 days remain underwater, with an implied cost basis of around $72,600. The firm noted that the recent rebound has yet to lift this group back into net profit.

Further reinforcing the bearish backdrop, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stands at 0.53, well below the neutral 1.0 threshold. This indicates that realized losses continue to outweigh realized profits.

Meanwhile, the 90-day SMA remains near 1.10, a level still consistent with bear market conditions rather than a sustained recovery.

"A 90-day SMA holding near 1.0 while the 30-day SMA prints 0.53 is a capital flow configuration that firmly confirms bear conditions," Glassnode wrote.

Spot market shows encouraging signs of recovery

Despite the weak onchain backdrop, Glassnode identified several constructive developments in spot and derivatives markets.

The report noted that Binance's spot order book depth imbalance has shifted in favor of buyers, with stronger passive bid-side liquidity absorbing selling pressure around the $60,000 lows.

At the same time, futures open interest remains subdued, suggesting the recovery is being driven by patient spot buyers rather than leveraged speculation.

"Although this alone is insufficient to confirm a durable bottom, the emergence of strong buy-side depth suggests spot market participants are becoming more willing to defend current price levels," the report stated.

Glassnode also observed that derivatives markets have largely normalized following a recent volatility spike.

Implied volatility has fallen sharply across maturities while realized volatility has increased, pushing the volatility risk premium into negative territory.

"The volatility shock has been largely absorbed, with options markets steadily removing the premium that was priced in during the recent period of stress," analysts observe.

Bitcoin is trading at $64,240, down 2.3% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.

​