Ripple Price Forecast: XRP plunges below $1.30 as whales reduce exposure
- XRP slides below $1.30 for the first time since early April amid broader risk-off sentiment and growing US-Iran tensions.
- Supply Distribution metric indicates a notable decline in the percentage of XRP held by addresses with balances between 100 million and 1 billion tokens.
- XRP retains a weakening technical structure with the RSI falling toward oversold territory and the MACD maintaining a sell signal.
Ripple (XRP) grinds lower below $1.30 at the time of writing on Thursday, as risk-off sentiment spreads across the crypto market. Reports of the United States (US) targeting Iranian drones and a launch site around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliating by launching an attack against an American base are likely to be weighing on sentiment and optimism of a peace agreement between the two countries.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he will not be rushed into making a deal, suggesting that an agreement may not be imminent despite Iran’s state TV reporting progress toward finalizing the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the US. According to the report, Iran will restore the number of commercial transit ships through the Hormuz Strait to pre-war levels within a month.
Risk-averse sentiment prevails as whales reduce exposure
Sentiment in the broader crypto market continues to deteriorate, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which fell to 22 in the Extreme Fear territory on Thursday, down from 25 the day before. Should sentiment remain weak, it would be difficult to uphold price increases, raising the odds of a persistent sell-off.
The Supply Distribution on-chain metric reflects a noticeable drop in appetite for risk assets, with the proportion of XRP held by addresses with balances between 100 million and 1 billion tokens falling to 11.51% of the total supply on Thursday, from 11.92% on May 20. If the decline is sustained, increasing supply will keep weighing on demand, raising the odds of a stronger bearish trend.
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Price analysis: XRP extends correction
XRP trades at $1.29, holding below the broken rising trendline, with the former support now acting as resistance near $1.31, reinforcing a bearish near-term bias. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) are all stacked above price, with the 50-day EMA around $1.39, the 100-day EMA near $1.46 and the 200-day EMA close to $1.67, suggesting rallies remain capped within a broader corrective phase.
The SuperTrend indicator, currently hovering around $1.43, also sits overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 33 on the daily chart points to persistent weak momentum rather than an immediate reversal.
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On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the ascending trendline break around $1.31, with further supply aligning at the 50-day EMA near $1.39. Above that, the SuperTrend band at roughly $1.43 and the 100-day EMA around $1.46 form a thicker barrier before the 200-day EMA near $1.67 comes into play as a more distant cap. If the sell-off persists, XRP could seek support at $1.25 with further decline likely to keep bears in control unless the pair can decisively climb back above the immediate resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
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