Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC rally takes a breather as US-Iran weigh extension of the 2-week truce

• Bitcoin holds recent gains as risk sentiment improves amid hopes that the US and Iran could extend the 2-week truce to continue negotiating.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded an inflow of $186.03 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flow this week.
• On-chain data signals caution, suggesting profit-taking and a concentrated distribution effort by large holders, which could cap BTC’s upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) price holds its gains, trading above $75,000 on Thursday as risk appetite improves amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. Institutional demand shows signs of optimism as spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded their second consecutive day of inflows this week. However, traders should be cautious, as on-chain data indicate profit-taking and distribution activity, which could cap the upside move for the Crypto King.

Risk sentiment improves amid US-Iran truce

Bitcoin price extends its gains so far this week as improving sentiment around the Middle East supports riskier assets. Bitcoin hit an over two-month high of $76,038 on Tuesday before pulling back slightly and steadying around $74,800 the next day. 

US President Donald Trump stated earlier in the week that the war was “close to over.” A Bloomberg report highlighted on Wednesday speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire. However, Trump downplayed the need for such a measure, pointing to ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

This improving sentiment around the Middle East boosted the risk sentiment, with US equities such as the S&P 500 Index hitting a new all-time high above $7,000, while Bitcoin continues to hold its recent gains.

Traders should keep a close eye on these geopolitical developments, as any negative signs or comments could dampen risk sentiment and cap Bitcoin’s price gains.

Institutional demand shows signs of optimism

Institutional demand shows early signs of return amid the possibility of a two-week extension of the ceasefire. SoSoVaue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of $186.03 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive inflow this week. If this inflow continues throughout the week, Bitcoin could see an upward move.

Some signs of concern

Apart from the bullish sentiment surrounding the market, on-chain data shows some signs of concern. As reported in the previous BTC weekly forecast, the Crypto King was aiming for the Traders Realized Price at approximately $79,000, according to CryptoQuant’s weekly report. As of this week, BTC is nearing this key resistance zone that, at the time of writing, hovers around $76,800. 

“A major bear market resistance level that has historically capped relief rallies,” said CryptoQuant’s analyst.

In addition, the chart below shows that the large deposits increased from less than 10% to more than 40% of total exchange inflows within days. This sharp rise indicates that institutional and large-holder distribution is driving the spike, which has historically coincided with elevated near-term selling pressure. 

The daily realized profits activity is also rising, standing near $500 million on Wednesday, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks a significant spike in profit realization in bear markets.

The analyst concludes that “This relatively subdued reading suggests that profit-taking is still in its early stages. Bitcoin holders who accumulated between $65,000 and $76,000 are now in profit, creating a growing pool of unrealized gains. In bear market rallies, realized profit spikes above $1 billion have historically coincided with, or slightly preceded, local price tops. If Bitcoin sustains above $76,000 or pushes higher toward the $76,800 Traders’ Realized Price, daily realized profits could accelerate meaningfully toward and above the $1 billion mark, adding further selling pressure and increasing the probability of a rally stall or reversal.”

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC nears key resistance zone

Bitcoin is trading above $75,000 on Thursday, nearing a key resistance around the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $75,300. BTC has retested and found support around the previously broken upper boundary of an ascending triangle pattern (drawn by connecting highs and lows with two trendlines since early February) near $73,400 on Wednesday.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, which together suggest firm bullish momentum as long as BTC holds above the breakout point near $73,400.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA at $71,307. A deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $68,950 (drawn from the January 14 high to the February 6 low), the rising trendline support (triangle pattern) near $67,412, and ultimately the more distant horizontal floor around $62,950.

On the topside, a sustained close above the 100-day EMA around $75,300 and the nearby $75,680–$75,764 resistance cluster would open the door toward the 50% retracement at $78,962 and the psychological $80,000 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)