Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC faces headwinds above $500 despite Ironwood adoption surge

• Zcash hovers above $500 on Monday, facing downside risk amid the lack of bullish momentum.
• Shielded supply in the Ironwood pool grows by 15% in 24 hours as users shift away from the Orchard pool.
• Retail demand for the privacy coin eases as Open Interest and funding rates contract.

Zcash (ZEC) hovers above $500 on Monday, extending a sideways move above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $490. The privacy coin experiences a shift in shielded supply to the Ironwood pool, from the old Orchard pool amid easing retail demand in Zcash futures. The technical outlook for ZEC is mixed, as the price hovers above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $490 and $469, respectively, yet lacks bullish momentum. 

Why is Zcash's shielded supply moving to Ironwood Pool?

Zcash developers discovered a four-year-old vulnerability in late May that could allow the minting of counterfeit coins, raising security concerns among privacy coin users. ZEC provides a store of value for users prioritizing financial privacy through its shielded transaction features, which conceal transaction data. However, the counterfeit vulnerability could have destroyed its store of value by minting a fake supply of ZEC tokens. 

To patch the issue, Zcash developers deployed an emergency hard fork on June 3, followed by the major Ironwood network upgrade in late July 2026. 

Zkp.baby data shows the migration from Orchard to the Ironwood pool in progress. Orchard pool is down nearly 17% over the last 24 hours to 1.49 million ZEC, while the Ironwood pool is up 15% to 2.30 million ZEC in the same time period. In addition, the total shielded supply at 4.36 million ZEC is holding steady after a V-shaped rebound from the August 1 low of 3.65 million ZEC, indicating a mild recovery in the privacy coin adoption.

Is Zcash losing speculative demand?

Retail demand for the privacy coin is easing in the near term as the broader crypto market remains risk-averse. CoinGlass data shows the ZEC futures Open Interest (OI) is down nearly 2% over the last 24 hours to $874.29 million, indicating a contraction in positional buildup. At the same time, the funding rate at 0.0075%, down from 0.0098% the previous day, maintains a bullish bias while reaffirming easing demand for long positions.

Technical outlook: Could Zcash extend its rally above $550?

Zcash holds above $500 on Monday, maintaining a constructive near-term bias. The privacy coin holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $490, $469, and $414, respectively, reinforcing an underlying uptrend structure.

Momentum is mildly positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering at 53 just above the midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line moving flat above its signal line, hinting that buyers are struggling to assert dominance.

On the topside, bulls face their first resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, measured over the recent upswing from the $368 low to the $589 high, at $532. The overhead resistance trendline near $548 reinforces the initial cluster, while a sustained break above these hurdles would open the way to the swing high zone around $589.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50-day and 100-day EMAs around $490 and $469, followed by the 50% retracement at $465.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)