Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC rebounds as retail speculations offset ETF outflows

• Zcash is up 5% on Wednesday, extending gains above the 50-day EMA at $1,208 after a 7% rise the previous day.
• ZEC-focused ETF witnesses renewed selling pressure with over $3 million in outflows on Tuesday.
• Zcash futures Open Interest is steadily rising above 2 million ZEC, indicating a positional buildup as the spot price recovers.

Zcash (ZEC) is gaining positive traction on Wednesday, as Democrats winning the US midterm elections weighs heavily on the US Dollar (USD), supporting the risk-sensitive assets, like cryptocurrencies. Institutional investors were on the back foot so far this week, with redemptions of over $7 million. Derivatives data shows renewed retail participation as Open Interest hits a seven-day high. 

The technical outlook for ZEC indicates a strong bullish bias, with the rebound hinting at a potential range-breakout move ahead of the NU7 upgrade.

US midterms and upcoming NU7 upgrade boost Zcash’s retail strength

Zcash shows signs of renewed retail interest as the broader cryptocurrency market recovers. This recovery aligns with Democrats taking control of Congress, while Zcash’s Network Upgrade 7 (NU7) on Friday serves as a niche tailwind.

CoinGlass data shows ZEC Open Interest (OI) rose to 2.17 million ZEC on Wednesday, up from 1.96 million on Sunday, suggesting that bullish speculation among traders is rising as positional buildup aligns with the price recovery.

On the other hand, institutional investors trimmed their profits earlier this week, resulting in two consecutive days of outflows of $3.58 million and $3.63 million. This implies that the institutional investors were selling under the pressure of political uncertainty surrounding the US midterms. However, now that the results are out, and the political gridlock weighs on the US Dollar, providing some relief to risk-sensitive assets, including Zcash.

Technical outlook: Will Zcash rebound result in a breakout rally?

Zcash trades at $1,282 at press time on Wednesday, extending its 7% recovery from the previous day. The privacy coin reclaims the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,209, sitting well above the longer-term 200-day EMA at $850, underpinning a constructive long-term bias.

From a technical perspective, the price remains capped between the October 8 low and high of $1,112 and $1,340, respectively, forming a consolidation range for almost a month. The rebound in ZEC could confirm a bullish breakout of this range with a daily close above $1,340 and open the path toward the $1,698 peak from September 26.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crosses above the signal line on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 leans slightly bullish, suggesting that buyers are gradually regaining control.

Looking down, immediate support is defined by the 50-day EMA near $1,209, followed by deeper structural demand at the October 8 low and high of $1,112.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)