Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bitcoin kicks off September with strength after 25% August surge

• Bitcoin extends gains, trading above $78,900 on Tuesday after staging a mild rebound the previous day.
• BTC ended August with a nearly 25% return, its strongest monthly performance in 21 months, while historical trends point to a cautious outlook for September.
• US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $216.70 million in net inflows on Monday, while Strategy added 4,603 BTC to its holdings.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts September on a stronger footing after delivering a nearly 25% monthly return in August, its best performance in 21 months. BTC is trading above $78,900 on Tuesday, while renewed spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and Strategy’s (MSTR) latest Bitcoin purchase signal continued institutional demand. However, historical September performance for the Crypto King suggests traders should remain cautious despite the strong start to the month.

What’s there for Bitcoin in September?

Bitcoin closed August with nearly 25% gains, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 and marking two consecutive months of positive returns. Historical data below shows a cautious outlook for BTC in September, delivering average losses of -2.86%.

Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, told FXStreet, “The price action reflects a market that remains highly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations. However, its overall structure remains considerably stronger than it was at the beginning of the month.”

Massabni concluded that the cryptocurrency market ends August with a clearly positive performance despite the correction seen in recent sessions. However, September will begin with significant risks related to Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, upcoming employment and inflation data, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

“If financial conditions tighten again, cryptocurrencies could face further corrections. Still, if liquidity and institutional demand remain strong, the sector could attempt to consolidate one of its most significant recoveries of 2026 over the coming weeks,” Simon-Peter Massabni added.

Institutional demand remains robust

Institutional demand for Bitcoin started the week on a positive note. SoSoValue data showed spot ETFs recorded an inflow of $216.70 million on Monday following a net weekly inflow of $924.48 million last week. If these inflows continue and intensify, BTC could support gains ahead.

Strategy is back after weeks of silence

Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that his firm, Strategy, acquired 4,603 BTC for $370 million after weeks of silence, bringing total BTC holdings to 845,050. 

In addition, the company increased USD Cash by $29 million and repurchased $152 million of STRC, bringing total reserves to $6.71 billion in USD Assets and Net Leverage to 0.0%. This decision to return to the market signals major corporate participants’ willingness to keep accumulating BTC even after the strong gains recorded in August.

Some signs of concern

Despite strong gains in recent weeks, traders should be cautious about expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next monetary policy moves. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish debut speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. He signaled that the central bank may raise interest rates if inflation does not slow significantly. 

Adding to this, rising energy prices due to escalating US-Iran tensions have revived fears of persistent inflation and increased bets on a potential interest rate hike. 

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around a 67% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at the upcoming policy meeting on September 15-16. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and weighs on risky assets such as BTC.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Will BTC head toward $85K?

Bitcoin price trades around $78,900 on Tuesday, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $72,364. Moreover, the 50-day EMA at $70,069 and the 100-day EMA at $69,097 are acting as underlying layers of demand that have already been reclaimed, while the horizontal barrier at $85,000 marks the next major topside objective.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71 on the daily chart, near the overbought levels, indicating strong momentum after easing from extreme levels last week. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has cooled, suggesting momentum remains positive but is losing some intensity after the latest surge.

On the downside, immediate structural support is seen at the 200-day EMA at $72,364, ahead of the horizontal levels at $66,500 and $62,300, which would come into play on a deeper pullback.

On the topside, buyers face initial resistance only at the psychological $85,000 mark, with the broader setup hinting that as long as BTC holds above the $72,364 area, dips are likely to attract fresh buying rather than signal a trend reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)