Bitcoin has yet to escape bearish conditions despite recent recovery

• ​Glassnode analysts say that Bitcoin has yet to escape bearish conditions despite its recovery over the past week.
• Long-term holders account for the largest share of realized losses, as investor capitulation weighs on BTC's price recovery.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows have eased, but institutional demand remains low amid weak trading activity.

In a report on Wednesday, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has continued trading beneath both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holders (STHs) cost basis of $72,200.

"Until these levels are reclaimed, the market remains in deep value territory and structurally vulnerable to any external negative catalyst," Glassnode wrote.

Long-term holders account for largest source of realized losses

The report also highlighted long-term holders (LTHs) as the largest source of selling pressure. The share of total realized value attributed to LTH losses has climbed from 15% in early February to 43%, reflecting growing capitulation among investors who purchased near the previous cycle peak.

"This dynamic directly explains why price has struggled to reclaim the upper band of the current range, as each attempted recovery is met with a fresh wave of distribution from this underwater cohort,” the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, long-term holders' realized losses have continued to climb rather than ease. Glassnode highlighted that entity-adjusted realized losses for BTC held longer than 155 days recently reached approximately $280 million per day, marking the highest level since December 2022.

"Unlike the first spike, which was followed by a partial cooldown, the current wave has not yet contracted to lower levels," the firm noted, adding that a meaningful decline in realized losses would be needed before a convincing transition back to a bull market could emerge.

Institutional demand has also remained weak despite some signs of stabilization. The 30-day moving average of net flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) improved from peak outflows of $193 million per day in early June to $88.9 million per day.

"While the deceleration in outflow pace is a tentative positive, the market remains in a net bleeding state on a monthly basis," the report stated.

ETF trading activity also remains subdued. Daily trading volume has fluctuated between $650 million and $950 million. That is roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025, signaling that institutional conviction has yet to return.

Bitcoin derivatives show signs of improvement

Derivatives markets are also beginning to show improving sentiment. Glassnode shared that BTC Options Put-to-Call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level this year. On the other hand, perpetual futures funding rates suggest traders have cautiously shifted toward long positions rather than aggressively betting on further downside.

However, options markets continue to price elevated downside risk. The 25-delta skew remains positive across all maturities, showing that traders are still paying a premium for downside protection even as positioning becomes more constructive.

“Every selloff since the winter has re-bid it, and late June's spike to 24% was the most defensive the front end has been since the February selloff,” Glassnode added.

Bitcoin is also trading roughly 6% below the aggregated options max pain level of $66,000.

“A sustained reclaim of $66K would shift the near-term read constructive, while a further widening would reinforce the defensive positioning evident across the options surface,” the firm stated.

Bitcoin is trading at $62,012, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.