Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP recovery at risk as Iran denies any dialogue with the US

• Bitcoin remains above $70,000, but upside potential appears limited amid renewed uncertainty over war in the Middle East.
• Ethereum’s rebound encounters 50-day EMA resistance as ETF outflows extend.
• XRP holds support above $1.40, but further gains seem limited amid subdued retail participation.

The cryptocurrency market remains on edge on Tuesday, following a sharp recovery the previous day. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $70,000, Ethereum (ETH) above $2,100, and Ripple (XRP) above $1.40. Despite the subtle gains, further recovery appears limited amid concerns about the war in the Middle East.

Iran denies talks with the US, putting Bitcoin’s recovery at risk

The Middle East war continues to take center stage with Iran refuting claims made by United States (US) President Donald Trump that the two nations are engaging in talks.

Trump said that talks with Iran are “very good and productive” and will continue amid a five-day pause on planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

“As talks continue this week, I’ve ordered a five-day pause on any military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, contingent on progress,” the US President said on Monday.

Following Trump’s optimism for a deal with Iran on opening the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping channel used to move at least 20% of the world’s Oil supplies, pressure eased in global markets.

WTI Crude Oil prices, which briefly fell sharply to $84, have returned above $90, reflecting renewed uncertainty over the direction of the war. Bitcoin is holding above $70,000, but its upside potential appears limited after Iran denied that it is in dialogue with the US. Moreover, Israel intends to continue strikes on Iran and Lebanon, saying that it needs to protect its interests in any potential ceasefire or peace deal.

Ethereum, XRP under pressure as institutional and retail demand cools

Ethereum continues to face a persistent capital exit from spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). US-listed ETFs saw approximately $16 million in outflows on Monday, extending the negative streak for the fourth consecutive day. SoSoValue data shows net assets under management averaging $12.51 billion while cumulative inflows stand at $11.71 billion. The outflow streak suggests that risk appetite for Ethereum investment products remains low, which may cap sustained recovery in the short- to medium-term.

Retail interest in XRP remains on the back foot, as seen in futures Open Interest (OI), which holds at $2.39 billion on Tuesday. Looking back, the XRP futures OI averaged $10.94 billion in July, coinciding with the $3.66 record high. This massive gap suggests that investors lack confidence in XRP’s ability to sustain rallies, which could explain the need to reduce exposure.

Chart of the day: Bitcoin holds key support

Bitcoin trades above $70,000, rising from the weekly open at $67,859. Its near-term bias remains neutral, with a bearish tilt, as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the broader trend downward.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers below the signal line on the daily chart, but has retreated toward the zero mark, indicating moderate upside momentum rather than a strong rally.

Immediate support lies near $70,000, aligning with the recent swing lows and sitting above the weekly open at $67,859. A sustained break below $67,859 would expose Bitcoin to the SuperTrend indicator's dynamic support at $66,188.

On the upside, initial resistance lies at $72,221, the 50-day EMA, followed by a horizontal supply zone roughly at $74,465 and the March high at $76,000. A decisive break above that hurdle would reopen the path toward the $78,000 region, which lies just below the 100-day EMA.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum steadies, XRP struggles

Ethereum is holding above $2,100 amid a neutral near-term bias. The SuperTrend indicator's buy signal and dynamic support at $1,981 aligns with a potential bullish turnaround. Still, daily candles remain below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between roughly $2,197 and $2,786, suggesting the dominant trend remains corrective even as downside momentum fades.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is holding marginally above the signal line on the daily chart, suggesting only modest bullish momentum rather than a decisive trend resumption.

Initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA near $2,200, followed by the previous week's high at $2,386 and the 100-day EMA at $2,465. On the downside, immediate support sits at the weekly open of $2,054, and the SuperTrend baseline is around $1,981. A drop through this demand exposes deeper support toward $1,900.

XRP is trading above $1.42, down from the daily high of $1.44. The remittance token aligns with a broader bearish trend, with the price capped well below the descending trendline resistance. Similarly, the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, clustered between $1.49 and $1.92, appear to be limiting XRP's recovery potential

The MACD holds marginally above the signal line on the daily chart and is near the zero mark, while histogram bars contract, suggesting fading bullish momentum, which may keep risks skewed toward renewed downside rather than a sustained recovery.

Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges around the 50-day EMA at $1.49, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.67 and then the 200-day EMA around $1.92, where the longer-term moving average strengthens the cap on advances. On the downside, immediate support sits at the pivotal $1.40 area, where a break would expose the weekly open at $1.38 and Monday's low at $1.36.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)