Crypto Weekly Radar: US-Iran ceasefire and talks in focus, $117M token unlocks as Bitcoin eyes $80,000 breakout

• The US-Iran ceasefire and peace talks, originally scheduled for Tuesday, hang in the balance after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship.
• Massive token unlocks, totaling $117 million this week, could drive market volatility.
• Bitcoin holds $75,000 as bulls attempt a short-term breakout toward $80,000, supported by improving market sentiment.

The crypto market broadly shows resilience on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising above $75,000 despite the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire appearing to hold by a loose thread.

Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), are rising alongside Bitcoin, majorly supported by improving risk appetite. Inflows into Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) surged to $664 million on Friday, the highest level since mid-January. The surge underscores risk-on sentiment among institutional investors.

US-Iran ceasefire under pressure as Tehran plans to skip peace talks

The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday, while peace talks hang in the balance, renewing tensions in the Middle East. Although the second round of peace talks is scheduled for Tuesday, the Iranian regime said on Monday that it has no plans to attend.

Iran’s adamant stance not to attend the negotiations comes after US forces attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged shipping vessel on Sunday. The absence of a diplomatic solution to the conflict could trigger a fresh rally in Oil and Gas prices, further weighing on global markets.

Iran has again blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route, used to move at least a fifth of the world’s Oil and Gas supplies, in retaliation for the US seizing the Iranian-flagged vessel.

The West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Oil price is at $87 at the time of writing on Monday, up from the daily low of $85.17 and last week’s trough at $78.88.

Potential supply shock ahead of $117 million token unlocks

The cryptocurrency market could experience high volatility as various networks release tokens, thereby increasing the circulating supply. Defi Llama data shows that the week commenced with $3.8 million in total unlocks on Sunday, led by Canton at $3.38 million.

LayerZero will account for the majority of the unlocks on Monday at $36.36 million out of the cumulative $35.53 million. The unlocks will be significantly reduced on Tuesday, with nearly $126,000 in fresh supply.

On Wednesday, the release will be primarily concentrated in Kaito, valued at $7.19 million, followed by Limited Exchange at $1.01 million and Celestia at roughly $8 million. Meanwhile, the largest unlocked will fall on Thursday, totaling $47.7 million.

As for Friday, the release will total $8.85 million, led by Initial with $8.38 million. The week will close with unlocks from Avalanche and Celestia, totaling $15.5 million.

Bitcoin bulls test breakout strength toward $80,000

Bitcoin trades at $75,029, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $71,910. The price sits well above the broken downward trendline, which now serves as a deeper structural floor near $64,139. Still, price action is pressing into the 100-day EMA at $75,279, which represents immediate overhead supply, while the 200-day EMA, higher up at $82,882, defines a more distant cap to the advance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59 on the daily chart, leaning higher without reaching overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting bullish momentum remains in play despite nearby resistance.

On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day EMA at $75,279 would open the way toward the next resistance at the 200-day EMA around $82,882. On the downside, initial support is seen at the rising 50-day EMA at $71,910, with the previously broken downward trendline near $64,139 offering a more substantial medium-term support zone if a deeper correction unfolds.

Meanwhile, market sentiment has continued to advance since last week, with the crypto Fear & Greed Index reading 29 on Monday, up from 27 the previous day. Last week, sentiment was generally stuck in extreme fear territory, with a reading of 12. As sentiment improves, demand for crypto assets could surge in tandem, increasing the chances of a steady recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)