Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC tests $75K, XAU drops as US Nonfarm Payrolls rise to 165K in October

• Bitcoin hovers near $76,000 on Friday after testing the $75,000 psychological support zone.
• Gold corrects below $4,050, erasing some weekly gains from highs around $4,147.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 165K in October, surpassing market expectations of 65K by a broad margin.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) are trading lower on Friday, reflecting a strengthening bearish outlook in markets. The Crypto King hovers around $76,000, down 0.98% on the day and nearly 4% since Monday. Meanwhile, the metal edges lower below the $4,050 threshold, and far below its weekly high of $4,147.

The Bitcoin correction has trimmed early-week gains that followed the United States (US) midterm elections. Market participants are getting increasingly concerned about the Democratic Party taking control of Congress in January, citing potential regulatory hurdles.

“Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry’s most vocal critics, is expected to take over the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress convenes in January, although the appointment has not yet been formally confirmed,” Crypto Finance said in an emailed analysis report, adding, “Warren has consistently advocated for tighter oversight of crypto, potentially making the path toward regulatory clarity longer and more restrictive than the industry had hoped.”

US Nonfarm Payrolls rise in October

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 165,000 in October, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released on Friday. The NFP exceeded the market consensus of 65,000 by a wide margin, signaling a resilient economy despite persistent price pressure and other macro concerns.

October’s NFP print followed the 60,000 increase recorded in September, which was revised up from 29,000.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate improved to 61.9% from 61.8% during the period. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3.1% from a revised 3.2%.

Gold is extending its down leg after the NFP report, while Bitcoin shows signs of a persistent downtrend ahead of the weekend. Bullish traders will watch for each of the assets’ behavior at key support levels: $75,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Gold before engaging and anticipating recovery.

“Near term, the market still needs to find its footing, but our medium-term view remains unchanged. The themes that showed real adoption before the sell-off remain the ones to watch, and further weakness may ultimately create better opportunities in the parts of the market where activity and conviction persist," Crypto Finance added.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin sellers tighten grip

Bitcoin trades at $76,006, keeping a bearish near-term bias as the pair sits below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 200-day EMA at $76,508 forms the first cap above spot, followed by the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $79,770, with the 50-day EMA higher at $79,833 reinforcing the overhead supply.

Momentum remains soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 38 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, suggesting downside pressure persists despite the recent consolidation.

Immediate support aligns with the Bollinger Bands lower band at $75,130, where dip-buying interest could emerge on a test. On the topside, a daily close back above the 200-day EMA at $76,508 would be the first sign of easing bearish pressure, while subsequent recovery through the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the midline of the Bollinger Bands at $79,770 is needed to open the path toward the 50-day EMA at $79,833. Only a sustained break above that cluster would challenge the broader resistance band near $84,409.

Technical analysis: Gold trims gains as selling pressure persists

Gold trades at $4,048 and remains under a dense confluence of moving averages with the 50-day EMA at $4,154, the 100-day EMA at $4,234, and the 200-day EMA at $4,260 all acting as overhead resistance. This setup keeps the near-term bias bearish despite constructive momentum that tagged highs around $4,147 on Thursday.

Price also sits below the Bollinger Bands’ middle band at $4,066, while the MACD has turned positive and the RSI holds around 47, suggesting any recovery attempt is likely to be capped by these structural barriers.

Initial resistance lies at the Bollinger middle band near $4,066, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,154. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $4,234 and the upper Bollinger band at $4,234 form a tight cluster, ahead of the more strategic 200-day EMA at $4,260 and the descending line break level at $4,346. On the downside, the Bollinger lower band at $3,898 offers the next notable support, where a break would likely expose further weakness in the broader bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)