Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: BTC rebounds while XAU approaches key breakout

• Bitcoin is edging closer to the $64,000 resistance level, supported by a bullish SuperTrend indicator.
• Gold retains a broadly bullish technical structure ahead of a potential breakout at $4,500.
• President Trump threatens to bomb Oman if the country gets in the way of the US reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading toward $64,000 at the time of writing on Monday, in line with mild gains in the broader cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) retains a bullish bias, edging toward a short-term breakout at $4,500.

Trump threatens Oman as 60-day MoU with Iran expires

The 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the United States (US) and Iran to allow for wider peace negotiations has expired on Monday. Despite the truce holding through the 60-day period, there appears to be no imminent end to the war, which has lasted 24 weeks since it broke out in late February.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital international shipping route, remains largely closed, with US President Donald Trump threatening to bomb Oman if the nation interferes with the reopening of the key waterway, according to a report by CBS News.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson earlier said Tehran has secured an agreement with Oman on future shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shows that Oil prices remain elevated above $82 amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin bulls tighten grip

Bitcoin trades at $63,903 and retains a mildly bearish near-term tone as it sits beneath a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA at $64,337, the 100-day EMA at $66,406 and the 200-day EMA near $71,839 all hover above spot, suggesting rallies remain capped while the pair fails to reclaim these dynamic resistance lines.

Meanwhile, the downward resistance trendline break level at $64,828 also reinforces overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 signals neutral momentum and a lack of directional conviction. Still, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, which may limit the neutral-to-bullish outlook.

Initial support aligns with the SuperTrend baseline near $61,291, where buyers could try to defend the broader range floor. On the topside, immediate resistance is outlined first by the 50-day EMA at $64,337, followed by the trendline area around $64,828. A daily close above these levels would open the door toward the 100-day EMA at $66,406, while the 200-day EMA near $71,839 marks a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery attempts.

Gold gains momentum

Gold trades near $4,419, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price sits above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered between roughly $4,235 and $4,325, while also remaining supported by the SuperTrend line around $4,125.

At the same time, momentum stays constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 65 and the MACD histogram holding in positive territory. However, the recent moderation in MACD values hints at a slowing upside impulse as price approaches a key descending resistance line.

Immediate resistance is the downward-sloping trendline, now near $4,450, which caps further gains for now. On the downside, initial support lies at the 100-day EMA around $4,325, followed by the 200-day EMA close to $4,290 and the 50-day EMA near $4,235. A deeper pullback would expose the SuperTrend support zone around $4,125, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)