Crypto Today: Bitcoin tests breakout zone as Ethereum, XRP consolidate on cooling futures 

• Bitcoin eyes retest of descending trendline support as BTC treasuries absorb selling pressure.
• Ethereum extends consolidation as futures Open Interest cools amid decreasing retail demand.
• XRP is currently holding between the 100-day EMA support and the 50-day EMA resistance, as risk-off sentiment persists.

Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $110,000 on Thursday after its mid-week recovery was rejected at around $112,500. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) remain near key support levels, extending consolidation amid declining retail demand. 

Data spotlight: Bitcoin treasuries accumulate despite volatility

Bitcoin treasury balances have continued to grow month-over-month (MoM) this year, indicating steady demand despite fluctuations in the price. In total, Bitcoin treasuries hold approximately 847,330 BTC valued at $93.9 billion. SoSoValue data indicates a weekly net inflow of 1,100 BTC, valued at approximately $122 million.

Bitcoin treasuries | Source: CoinGlass

According to Sentora, “the steady accumulation points to durable institutional conviction despite volatile market conditions.”

Bitcoin treasuries MoM holdings | Source: Sentora

Glassnode data indicates that investors are increasingly seeking exposure during dips, with range support at $104,000 and resistance at $116,000. However, cooling futures and demand for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) cap upward price action. 

A breakout above the resistance level could revive the uptrend, increasing the likelihood of the BTC price surpassing $120,000. Still, a break below the $104,000 support could confirm breakdown risks toward the demand zone between $93,000 and $95,000.

Bitcoin ETF market | Source: Glassnode 

Ethereum, on the other hand, is facing a significant decline in futures Open Interest (OI), which, according to CoinGlass data, stands at $59 billion after peaking at a record high of $70 billion on August 24.

OI represents the notional value of outstanding futures. If the downtrend persists, it would mean low retail demand due to a lack of conviction in the uptrend resuming toward its record high of $4,956.

Ethereum futures Open Interest | Source: CoinGlass

XRP faces a similar situation with the futures OI falling to $7.61 billion after peaking at $10.94 billion on July 22. It would be increasingly difficult for XRP to sustain recovery amid cooling retail demand. Hence, price fluctuations may last longer than expected.

XRP futures Open Interest | Source: CoinGlass

Chart of the day: Bitcoin eyes trendline retest 

Bitcoin price has recently broken above the trendline resistance but was rejected at around $112,500 on Wednesday. The price is currently positioned above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support at $110,736. 

A correction below the moving average could see Bitcoin retest the trendline support, potentially confirming the breakout toward the $116,000 round-figure target and the critical $120,000 level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 backs the cooling in demand. As the RSI drops, buying pressure dwindles, leaving BTC susceptible to further declines. A persistent decline could prompt traders to shift their attention to the 200-day EMA at $104,314 as a potential support level.

BTC/USDT daily chart 

Altcoins update: Ethereum, XRP extend consolidation 

Ethereum holds above $4,300 after bulls lost momentum below the $4,500 level on Wednesday. Based on the prevailing technical picture, the path with the least resistance remains downward, reflecting risk-off sentiment in the derivatives market.

The MACD indicator has maintained a sell signal since August 25, encouraging traders to de-risk, anticipating the price to fall further before gaining momentum for a steady recovery toward its record high of $4,956.

Traders should monitor the ETH price reaction to the ascending trendline illustrated on the daily chart below. The price has since bounced off this trendline in early July, signalling a potential reversal if tested. Other key support levels include the 50-day EMA at $4,044 and the 100-day EMA at $3,566.

ETH/USDT daily chart

As for XRP, its current position between the 100-day EMA support at $2.77 and the 50-day EMA resistance at $2.91 points to a prolonged consolidation period ahead of the next breakout. A sell signal from the MACD indicator since July 25 hints at the downtrend continuing toward the 200-day EMA support at $2.51.

XRP/USDT daily chart

Still, the RSI’s stability at 44 reflects the tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears. If the RSI rises above the midline, buying pressure will surge, increasing the chances of XRP reclaiming the $3.00 support level.