Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC stabilizes near $103,000 amid trade optimism, rising institutional demand

• Bitcoin price stabilizes around $103,000 on Friday after facing multiple rejections at the key $105,000 resistance level throughout the week.
• Risk-on sentiment prevails, driven by global trade deals, strong corporate accumulation, and spot ETF inflows.
• Traders should be cautious as defunct exchange FTX announces its second round of repayments to creditors.

Bitcoin (BTC) price stabilizes at around $103,000 when writing on Friday, after facing multiple rejections at the key $105,000 resistance level throughout the week. Risk-on sentiment prevails, driven by global trade deals between the United States (US) and other countries, strong corporate accumulation, and spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) inflows. However, traders should be cautious as defunct exchange FTX announces its second round of repayments, which would inject volatility into the crypto market.

Trade deals and softer US CPI fuel risk-on sentiment 

Global markets were buoyed this week by major trade developments and cooling inflation data from the US.

On Monday, the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction deal, lowering US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. The agreement followed high-level talks in Geneva, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, alongside Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

A trade deal between the US and the UK was also announced last week. Both deals show signs of easing global trade tariff tensions and uncertainty, boosting investors' confidence and risk-on sentiment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The QCP’s capital report this week highlighted “a rollback in tariffs and sparking a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment,” buoyed by an unexpectedly bullish turn in US trade diplomacy.

On Tuesday, Washington signed a landmark $600 billion trade pact with Saudi Arabia. 

During the same period, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in below expectations, reinforcing interest rate cut bets by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the central bankstill appears to be concerned about the lingering effects of tariffs on inflation and employment. 

“The first cut is currently priced in for July, but in our view, September is more realistic given the Fed’s desire for further clarity. Market pricing has also adjusted accordingly, with two rate cuts now expected for 2025, down from four just a month prior,” say QCP analysts.

Despite the improving macro backdrop and easing global trade tensions, Bitcoin has remained range-bound this week, consolidating between $100,700 and $105,000.

Corporate and Institutional demand bolsters Bitcoin's strategic appeal

Corporate interest in Bitcoin started the week on a strong note. On Monday, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced that it added 1,241 BTC valued at $125.3 million, bringing its total holdings to 6,796 BTC. 

On Wednesday, a Ukrainian-based media outlet reported that Ukraine is working on legislation establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. This initiative will be developed in cooperation with Binance, a leading global crypto exchange and is still in process.

If implemented, Bitcoin could see more sovereign adoption, like El Salvador, strengthening regulatory clarity, boosting legitimacy, and encouraging long-term investor confidence.

Adding to the bullish narrative, DDC Enterprise Ltd, a cross-border consumer brand and e-commerce firm operating between China and the United States, announced Thursday it will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

In its shareholder letter, Founder, CEO Norma Chu announced a Bitcoin accumulation strategy beginning with an initial purchase of 100 BTC. The company aims to acquire 500 BTC within six months and reach 5,000 BTC over the next 36 months, signaling a long-term commitment to Bitcoin’s role in treasury management.

Meanwhile, institutional interest continues to gain traction. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $343.47 million until Thursday, extending a five-week streak that began in mid-April. If these inflows continue and intensify, Bitcoin prices could rally further.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETFs weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Some bearish signs to watch for 

Despite the bullish outlook discussed above, traders should be cautious as Santiments’ Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric shows BTC holders are booking some profits after a massive gain of over 10% in the previous week. 

As shown in the chart below, the metric showed a mild spike this week, indicating that holders are, on average, selling their bags at a significant profit and increasing the selling pressure. BTC could see a sharp price fall if this trend continues and intensifies.

BTC NPL chart. Source: Santiment

Moreover, defunct crypto exchange FTX is set to begin its next round of creditor settlements in May, according to a press release on Thursday. The company revealed that, starting May 30, eligible creditors will partake in over $5 billion worth of distributions as part of its restructuring plan. If these creditors move funds to the exchanges, it would trigger a wave of selling off in the crypto market. 

Bitcoin’s technical outlook suggests fading bullish momentum

Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections and failed to close above the $105,000 resistance level since Sunday, consolidating below this resistance level for the past four days. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC stabilizes at around $103,000.

If BTC fails to close above $105,000 and faces a pullback, it could extend the decline to retest the psychological support level at $100,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 69 and points downwards after slipping below its overbought level of 70, giving a sell signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also flipping to a bearish crossover on the daily chart. If the crossover occurs, it would confirm another sell signal.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if BTC breaks and closes above the $105,000 resistance level, it could open the door for a rally toward the all-time high of $109,588 set on January 20.